CORRECT SCORE BETTING STRATEGY
Correct Score Betting On Football
It’s needless to say that gambling can be tough sometimes. Then again, it’s super easy to predict once you apply analysis and proper statistical data and techniques. This will help you skyrocket your chances of hitting things hard! We just did an article that explains some of the problems and solutions of the correct score betting strategy.
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Football Betting ‘How To’ – Correct score betting
Correct score is one of the notoriously tough to predict betting types. But how is it possible that some experts still get them right? Definitely, it’s an issue with science here and that what we want to explain. Allen explains how you can bring mathematics to work and create a winning formula.
It’s on a weekend and there’s several EPL or Bundesliga or La Liga matches…it’s a weekend full of sport. You might recall it. Or, it’s such a night-a Champions League night. The night that both of your favorites are playing to win. You try googling up things but the commentators and match analysts say the matches are completely unpredictable. But at the end of the day, unpredictability is what makes everything seem so great.
To some extent, they are right…when PSV nails Manchester United. When your favorite team goes down 2-0 at home and everything just goes brouhaha. You ask yourself, but I have always backed both scores well: the first one at an immensely satisfying 109/1 and the second at a tough 16/1. Weeks earlier you’d plumped for West ham United to hold Manchester city and they of course did, and my mood flew even higher when I backed Manchester City to beat Sunderland 1-0. I’d backed that really well, so I was typically flying.
Where did I get this fluke, some twist of fate or was I really that good at predicting? The answer is neither, or both but this will depend on how you look at it. Let’s be honest, that’s our biggest stronghold here at Mjomba-we do know how to make correct predictions over the long run but if you’re after getting rich overnight then you’re clearly a dreamer.
Here is the backbone of this article, some tips on how you should use good odds to your advantage to help you become the real maestro at calling correct scores:
Some people hope to get rich quick, try buying the so called “fixed matches” but and the end of the day, lose money to scammers. Yes, we do agree that there are fixed matches (very much illegal) but the truth is you can even afford them (at least the majority of us can’t). So the only way out is to watch out to avoid being scammed.
Correct scores are a little tough to predict, that’s why you’ll get around 10/1 or above for scoring right on each game. For instance, if you pick all the weekend premier league matches and try to predict the scores, you’ll most likely get 2, 3 at the maximum. Some weeks you’ll even get none! 2 or 3 is however good enough to bring you the profits. That’s 10 unit stakes by 2, which is already good profit.
One of the most important things you’ll need to keep in mind is that it’s perfectly alright to get 8 wrong, as long as you get just 2 correct, you’ll have made some profit already. No website, no one, not even us can predict all the 10 matches correctly. We make the best attempts but telling you we call all the 10 matches will be a white lie.
All this time we’ve been in the gambling business, brother or sister, we’ve realized one thing-that 70 percent of all matches have frequent scores of 11 or 2-1 (to either team). This is the reason why bookies give about 7/1, 6/1 or even 5/1 on these. I’m sure you understand what these figures mean. The trick is this-look for value in scores that could potentially be out of the ordinary. Makes sense? Well, an example will do you some good, right? If you bet on all the 10 EPL games to end in 3-1 scorelines, you’ll be shocked that in some cases you’ll get a very unlikely winner, for instance, Arsenal have an off day and get beaten 2-0 at Southampton, losing 3-0 until the last minute when Southampton get another goal “that honestly doesn’t reflect Southampton’s performance as gamblers would say. These scorelines would return you 100/1. At these odds you can place a small bet of $1 on each of the 10 epl matches, and one winner of the similar kind returns triple your stake. This is just one of the examples that came to mind.
Let’s look at some ways to use correct scores:
So how does the correct score strategy work?
Let’s begin with
You can place a bet of $1 on all the 10 epl matches, if you get just one or more correct scores then you’ll have broken even or made some really good profit on the scores you select and the odds you get.
Place small amount, say $1 on a double. For instance, you can select the most likely scores (ignore outsiders), for instance Leeds to beat Charlton 2-1 at 6/1 and Manchester United to beat Arsenal at 2-1 at 7/1. Put your stake on this double and when the odds are multiplied, you get close to $40 from a stake of just $1. It’s not wise doing trebles or over on correct scores…when are you ever going to crack the 300/1 odds out of just 2 correct predictions? We’ll tell you that in a moment, when just $10 would net you $3,000.
This may not be very popular in some countries. Lucky 15 ideally means selecting up to four correct scores at about 16/1 odds, for instance score lines of 3-0 and 3-1, covering all singles, doubles together with trebles and a quadruple out of your four matches. Get just one and you’ll get your stake back-together with some profit, two or more and you’ll be in for a good day for a relatively small stake!
Let’s me share a story. I have this childhood friend of mine. She’s bright, works for an excellent company and she’s successful. Yet her most striking feature is that she’s a terrible gambler. She’s perhaps the worst I have come by. If she were new to gambling, or perhaps suffering from some sort of emotional disorder, her woeful gambling would make sense. But she is, by definitions of a clinical practitioner, sane.
My friend will always back his first hunch, which is usually devoid of rational thought. It’s based on what he thinks or, more frequently, feels is going to happen, and sometimes it pays huge dividends. Overall though, like every punter who bets on hunches, he loses money. Boring concepts such as mathematics are conspiring against him, which is why I adopt a different approach.
She’ll always back her first hunch…most definitely devoid of rational thinking. It’s based on what comes to her mind or, more often than not, feels will happen, and sometimes it REALLY PAYS her well. Overall though, just like you and I who place bet on hunches, she loses money. She hates boring match concepts and says are conspiring against her, but I insist there is a secret in math.
She moans at me, “You’re such a smart arse!” “You just but a boring match geek!” she says, “but you win. It’s just damn annoying!”
Sometimes, I tend to think my friend is right because successful gambling is just but crunching the numbers. It’s about hitting the odds…putting in hours of work and winning. She has more fun, but she pays for it. On the contrary, I place bets on outcomes when I have done my math well and when I feel that the odds are in my favor. For instance, here is how I do my math so you know what I’m really talking about here.
If I choose to work with a probability of 1-0 (home win) with a probability of 12%, at least for me, the real odds should be about 8 or 7/1 i.e ((1_0.12) – 1 = 7.3) which means I’ll get a punt if get 8/1. If you still don’t understand this betting lang, then here’s some explanation—If I bet $1 on that game say 100 times, I’ll scoop on 12 of them and loose the rest 88. At 8/1 I’ll scoop a profit of $8 i.e ($12×8-$88=$8). If I choose to go with 7/1 then this means I’ll lose just $4 (12x$7-$88=-$4), yet on both occasion, I backed 12 winners. Makes sense? You’re new? Don’t worry. We all were there!
This is one of the most important lessons any gambler ought to learn. Betting when odds are working for you (are on your favor is wise) because you’ll be making profits in the long run. So, I have a reason for sticking to my math. This is surprisingly the reverse of what the majority of bookies do. The TRICK is and will always be to play when you know you have the advantage. Therefore, backing in your favor means you’ll get odd breaks and consequently make good profit. This is just mathematics which is why our approach works.
The point here is that you’re doing anything but guessing the result. At times you’ll back a team you really think is going to lose which sometimes seems counter-intuitive. You’ll also back a hell of other losers but you probably already do anyway. My childhood friend thinks of my approach as insane. In fact, it’s incredibly sane but very boring particularly if you hate some math. Giggle.
One of the biggest questions you’re probably want answers for is, “ So how do I know whether the odds are in my favor?” Well, the first rule you’ll need to remember is that they usually won’t be. You might get attracted to the 9/1 on the Wanderers to beat Villa 1-0 advertised in one of the bookies’ window looks amazing, but once you’ve crunched the numbers, it probably won’t be.
Bookies have to take bets, so you can ignore that advert and take a better price elsewhere. But how can you be sure that the best price is a good bet? To work this out, some pretty heavy number crunching is required. Most gamblers, even serious ones, won’t want the hassle of applying this theory each week. I’ve provided some reference (see Charts 1 and 2), which you can use as cheat sheets to give you a guide about when to bet. But to understand the theory, I recommend you read on.
At the very least, punters have an advantage here in as much as they don’t require a bet unless they absolutely need to. Bookmarkers take bets, so you can choose to ignore the advert and find a better price elsewhere. I haven’t answered your question, I know. So how do can I tell that the best price is the best bet? To find out this, you’ll need to perform some heavy number crunching.
The math lesson is here now. If you cast your mind way back, you might recall having learnt the Poisson distribution in your math classes. Remember? If your memory is good, you also remember that the Poisson distribution offers a great way of modelling situations that come with independent random events that occur in any place or time. Certain conditions will be necessary for the Poisson Probability to work. One such factor is the fact that the variable cannot be a fraction or a negative; the events ought to be independent of each other. They should also be equally likely to occur in each period. Additionally, the random events should also be rare.
If you haven’t dropped from this discussion then you already agree that this description also applies to goals during a football match. Events, (goals) in our case occur randomly and sometimes rarely within a span of 90 minutes. Therefore, in case you’re interested in placing your bets in the number of goals in a match and you know that the average number of goals in any particular match is 2, then then this Poisson probability distribution will come to play really well. It will provide a really close window that should help you calculate the probabilities of any different scores. If, on the contrary, you were placing your bets on a basketball match, where scoring is more frequent, the Poisson distribution wouldn’t apply.
In simpler terms, if you already know that, on average, a team scores about 1.2 goals in any given match, the Poisson distribution says that the same team has a 30 percent probability of not scoring in any given match.
Applying the theory
Rejoined us after bunking our math lesson? Well no problem. The only important thing you probably missed is that the probability of any team to score any given number of goals in any given match can be calculated, provided you know what the mean (average) number of goals are.
The easiest way of doing this (calculating the average number of goals is by taking the number of goals team X has scored (this season) by the number of matches the team has played. While this technique is better that simply guessing your way through, we recommend that you use a more accurate approach, taking into account the relative strengths of the two teams. One good thing about this is that you do not have to work out this all by yourself since most betting companies have this already done for you. They publish the spreads on supremacy as well as total goals for the top football teams and matches. They usually know what they’re talking about so if they’ve quoted at 2 and the supremacy is at 0.4 then your average would be 0.8. Clear?
If you’re a real math geek then you can proceed to feeding some of this data into your spreadsheets, while the rest of you can play around with the theory until things get understandable. Assuming you’ve worked out that in a particular match the home team scores 1.6 goals on average, while the away team scores 1.2, then working out the probability from this end is even easier using your tables.
You might ask, what is the probability of a match finishing 0-0, for instance? You already understand the probabilities on each side to score are 20% and 30 percent, so you just need to multiply the figures together to reach the result—that the result has a 6% chance of happening i.e 0.2×0.3=0.06. Additionally, a 1-1 draw with a 11.5% chance of happening would be 0.32×0.36=0.115, whilst there is a 7.8% chance that the match will end at 2-0 in favor of the host (0.26×0.3=0.078. If you’ve already noticed, the only striking thing about all these calculations is that they show how unlikely you’re to select the correct score. For instance, the 2-0 wouldn’t class itself as a shock result yet you’re going to score it right at 7.8 percent of the time. This is why bookmarkers make money. You think there’s a higher likelihood of something happening than there actually is and you place your bets on it. Well now you won’t. J
Time to Beat Your Bookie?
So how can I use the numbers to my advantage? Well, the bookies know as much as we’ve told you and even more. We’ve already mentioned that their rates are rarely of good value. So what really the point?
To begin with, most bookmarkers offer odds that should be taken by punters. They really offer prices. Believe me not, they are in business to discourage or attract you towards certain bets and won’t always follow probabilities.
In most cases, there are better prices across other bookies, where you can find even better value correct score bets. You may have already noted that the probability of the 2-0 score mentioned actually happening is 7.8 as calculated earlier. This means you’ll need digital odds of about 13. This is how you convert-divide 1 by the probability. Therefore 0.078 will equal to 12.82. Now, add the margin to give you profit, accounting for any errors in your calculations (science may not be exact). It’s therefore up to you to decide how much to add but most importantly, remember that higher margins mean fewer bets. Start by adding about 10 percent for a start. This means you’ll not bet on the 2-0 unless you can find better odds of say 14.1 to give (12.82×1.1) or higher.
To conclude, if you’ve followed us to this end, you’re going to win more than you lose on correct score bets. The winnings should also give you more profit at the long run but remember, correct score is very volatile. It’s either way, you can lose or wake up with a “heavy bank account.” To have posted it here, we’ve already tried this and will tell you what it’s like. Sometimes we have fantastic weeks where everyone would think we’re geniuses but the truth is that sometimes some of these winnings are sandwiched between some losses too but at the end of the day, we know how to stay at the top all the time! We can help you get your sums right!
This weekend, we’ll have correct scores. If you want to receive them then shoot us a message at firstname.lastname@example.org for instruction. For Daily match predictions, visit the Mpredictor for details. Our biggest goal is to see you win…and at least if we can help then that really makes sense.